Unweaving the End of Season Slump, and other Meaningless Myths

League Titles are won by Teams that stay the fittest for the longest period of time. 

From an Arsenal point of view, it becomes increasingly hard to try and avoid this unmistakable fact as we head into April. 

We of all teams are adept at letting things hit the fan.  It's been the same old boring story year in year out and while my heart says this year will be different, Arsenal winning the season this year will be written inside the narrative of us overcoming what I've fondly come to term : "The End of Season SLUMP".

But is there really such a phenomenon ? Is it not our combined lack of character, spirit and testicular fortitude as is echoed relentlessly by the media faithful ? The following graphic may prove instructive.

Exhibit A : Our month-wise average points per game over the last decade "stacked" on top of each other.

Some things catch my eye right away. Note that "thicker" and more uniform graphs usually end up with higher point tallies.

(A1) We dip mainly at two points in the season : The first usually around October and the second around April, though I will admit the graphs in the Post Emirates Era show this more significantly. Contrast this with the Invincibles season of 2003-04 (In Green - a season again where despite being unbeaten, we showed a similar pattern in our results with the important difference being the lack of big spikes courtesy of being unbeaten). Our first dip this year came much later -  in November. Our second dip has come early with us doing badly in March with 2 draws in 2, in a month where we've traditionally done very well. VERDICT : March has been poor, but April will be the real big test of our squad management.

(A2) Will us not being in Europe affect our performances in the league ? Surely that must be true.  But our results show no real correlation. While being out of Europe can be a great thing for our players' legs, the added boost of being among Europe's best also must feature in inspiring better performances. VERDICT : F*ck the champions league, we're out of it now. It's now time to move on.

(A3) In the wake of some fantastic statements of late from Raymond Verheijen : A dutch fitness coach whose technique of "periodization" - a training regimen that avoids overtraining athletes opting instead for small scale short bursts of fitness training -- One begins to wonder if our squad rotations make sense after all. This has been a widely stated "problem" among Gooners -- That our B team is not upto it and the like. Is it at all realistic to try and win the league with the same squad of 11 players ? VERDICT: Yes, if we had our best 11 playing every game we would win the league. But that's a BIG if in today's game with our current crop, and possibly with any group.

Sadly, statistics can only say so much. What would be more interesting is how we compare to the other "horses" in the run in - which brings us then to the next graphic.

Exhibit B : The Three Horse Race Unfolded - The Month-wise shares of the premier league pie in 2010-11

(B1) While you could argue about our slump being a common feature, the team in the real "slump" is Man Utd. In fact, barring some great luck this month was worse for them, and with their recent injuries things are looking skywards for Chelsea and us.

(B2) Are Chelsea back ? Are they really ? If you watched the City game and did not fall asleep you would perhaps note that it took till the very end for them to produce anything that looked like a title challenge. While the world harps on about them being back in this, they will be as likely to drop points as anyone else. Chelsea's "return" in my opinion, is more a statement about Man Utd and Arsenal's poor results than their rise from the ashes.

To sum things up, I still think we will have the best chance of winning the league this year in recent memory. Yes -- we will have some tough games : Notably away games at Stoke and Sp*rs but there is no reason whatsoever to believe we cannot win those games. We still have the best record away from home and we've shown a remarkable ability this year to get something out of the hardest places.

So get out your red shirts, serve yourself some wine and bring it on. The rest is just noise.